Jetcraft Predicts $30B Annual Bizav Market by 2023

Business aviation sales are predicted to reach just short of $30 billion per annum by 2023, according to U.S.-based aircraft broker Jetcraft's latest five-year industry forecast for new and preowned aircraft released this week at EBACE. This is up from the more than $26 billion in new delivery and preowned aircraft sales last year, said company owner and chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim.

Its forecast, which covers the 2019 to 2023 period, also concluded that preowned transactions are growing at a proportionately higher rate than new deliveries and that “more accessible and less costly refurbishment options” are allowing growth in the preowned “value proposition” and even created increased demand for out-of-production aircraft. The forecast also found that the average retirement age of a business aircraft is now 32 years—“something that really surprises me,” professed Jetcraft CEO Chad Anderson.

In terms of aircraft size, the shift towards larger continues, but overall new deliveries are forecast to “flatten out as the result of an upcoming economic downturn,” although preowned transitions “will continue to grow.” The analysis predicts the business aircraft fleet will grow by 12.1 percent over the next five years, but estimates that some 1,050 aircraft will be retired over the same period.

BACA Grows, Ups Fight Against Illegal Charter

BACA—The Air Charter Association's membership hit “a record high” in early 2019, surpassing 250 companies. The company's positioning itself as the global voice of the air charter industry created the surge in member numbers, BACA said. In addition, taking a strong stance on illegal charter has also garnered support from the industry.

The association, which grew out of the Baltic Exchange in London, is due to mark its 70th anniversary this year and will hold a “special event to mark the occasion” on July 4. “This is a significant step forward for the association,” said BACA chairman Nick Weston. “We always knew that 250 members was an objective we would like to meet, but to achieve it in our 70th year is very satisfying.” 

Turning to what has commonly been referred to as “gray” charter, Weston said, “We are working hard to ensure that the authorities are aware of our stance on illegal charters, and we have seen some significant progress in combating the issue. The more members we have the greater the global influence we have when speaking with the relevant authorities.”

Weston noted that BACA had become increasingly concerned about illegal air charter, and with the crash north of Guernsey earlier this year that killed soccer player Emiliano Sala, it has added new impetus to the campaign.

London Oxford Continues To Grow

London Oxford Airport continues to expand as the airfield cements its position in the UK’s top-five business aviation locations, despite a 7.5 percent drop in business aviation movements in the overall London region. In the past 12 months, 84,644 business aircraft movements were recorded at London-area airports, of which Luton and Farnborough accounted for 55 percent, while Biggin Hill and Stansted shared another 25 percent.

The remainder was distributed among Oxford, Northolt, Gatwick, Heathrow, Stansted, London City, Cambridge, Denham, Fairoaks, and Blackbushe. Luton and Stansted saw the biggest reductions, where business aviation is increasingly being squeezed by the low-cost commercial carriers, especially at night during the summer months.

Oxford’s figure of 5,500 movements in the same period places it just behind the UK’s “big four,” and the airport has seen large-cabin jet traffic rise by 2 percent, light jet and midsize traffic remain stable, and turboprop traffic increase by 34 percent, largely due to the operations of JetFly’s fractional ownership fleet of Pilatus PC-12s. JetFly PC-24 operations are expected to further swell traffic numbers.

The OxfordJet FBO has seen passenger numbers increase by 20 percent to 10,000 per year. Light general aviation movements are on the rise, too, through the activities of flight schools. Helicopter activity is steady at 6,000 movements annually, many of which are 20- to 25-minute interlining missions serving the London Battersea Heliport.

Gulfstream G500/600 Near Key Milestones in Europe, U.S.

Gulfstream is on the cusp of receiving a pair of key approvals for its G500 and G600 ultra-long-range siblings: European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) validation of the 5,200-nm G500 and U.S. FAA approval for the 6,500-nm G600, it said leading up to EBACE. The manufacturer has been in the “final stages” of receiving European approval for the G500, according to newly appointed senior v-p of innovation, engineering, and flight Collin Miller.

G500 deliveries to European customers are anticipated to begin shortly thereafter, but shipments have already begun internationally, with Qatar Airways taking delivery of two of the aircraft at the end of last year. By mid-April, the in-service G500 fleet had already accumulated more than 2,000 flight hours, completing trips in the U.S., Europe, the Pacific Islands, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Including flight test time, the G500 fleet has reached more than 7,000 flight hours and 2,575 landings. 

As for the G600, Gulfstream anticipates U.S. certification by the end of June, with deliveries following later this year. “We're very near the end of flight test,” Scott Neal, senior v-p, worldwide sales, told reporters in early March, saying that at the time, the flight test program had accrued close to 3,000 flight hours in more than 790 flights. The G500 got the nod from the U.S. FAA in July.

ICAO Aircraft Emissions Plan ‘Becomes Real’ This Year

The ICAO-led Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) “becomes real” this year and affected aircraft operators should be well into monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), according to U.S.-based international law firm ReedSmith. The scheme aims to use market-based measures to cap CO₂ emissions from aviation at 2020 levels, leading to carbon-neutral growth from that point.

CORSIA is voluntary from 2021 to 2023 in a “pilot phase,” most operators having submitted emissions monitoring plans last year for approval by this past January 1. Operators producing less than or equal to 10,000 metric tons of CO₂ a year from international flights, along with aircraft below 5,700 kg, and humanitarian, medical, and firefighting flights, are all exempt from MRV requirements. Exempted entities aside, CORSIA should now be firmly embedded in the workings of most business aircraft operators, as well as airlines, even though the first mandatory phase for the scheme won’t start until 2027.

For now, the focus is on the MRV element, while the exact nature of “offsetting” in practice is gradually taking shape. Most business aviation operators will be using the CO₂ Estimation and Reporting Tool (CERT) for MRV purposes, although they can also opt for fuel-use monitoring. While MRV takes place, the offsetting machinery will start to take a solid shape.